This article is an excerpt from the Shortform book guide to "False Alarm" by Bjørn Lomborg. Shortform has the world's best summaries and analyses of books you should be reading.
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What are the limitations of the green revolution that’s supposed to save our planet? Can renewable energy sources really replace fossil fuels and solve our climate crisis?
In False Alarm, Bjorn Lomborg challenges the optimistic vision of a world powered entirely by renewable energy. He examines real-world examples from both developing and developed nations to reveal the practical constraints of solar, wind, and other green technologies.
Keep reading to discover why the transition to renewable energy might be more complicated than you’ve been led to believe.
The Limitations of the Green Revolution
One approach depends on an imminent green revolution, in which renewables like solar and wind will supplant fossil fuels, reducing carbon emissions to zero. Lomborg, however, argues that the green revolution is an unattainable fantasy. So, what are the limitations of the green revolution?
First, Lomborg points out that renewables are currently responsible for 11% of energy in the U.S., with projections estimating we’ll be at 16% by midcentury. These numbers, he argues, don’t suggest a pending revolution.
(Shortform note: Since False Alarm’s publication in 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) projections have shifted slightly: In 2022, they projected that renewables will account for 20% of US energy usage by 2050. While 20% still doesn’t sound revolutionary, it’s a notable increase from the projections that Lomborg cites.)
In addition, Lomborg argues that renewables, such as solar panels, can’t provide enough energy to lift poor societies out of poverty. As evidence, he points to the Fijian city of Rukua, which tried to transition solely to solar energy. Ultimately, the solar grid could only power three refrigerators at once, causing widespread failure. Solar panels, he claims, can’t be our main source of energy.
(Shortform note: According to some experts, deeming solar energy insufficient is part of a wider trend of underestimating solar energy. However, while researchers agree that the Rukuan solar grid was unsuccessful, they argue that this wasn’t necessarily because solar energy was insufficient. Rather, they claim that the Japanese company responsible for the solar grid failed to communicate with the village, creating a solar grid that wasn’t attuned to its specific needs. Further, they argue that a tragedy of the commons occurred, where villagers used more than their fair share of electricity, leading to the solar grid’s failure.)
Indeed, even wealthy countries suffer from increased reliance on renewables. For example, Lomborg cites the German Energiewende, an energy policy moving away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. On top of costing $36 billion annually, the Energiewende has led to electric costs of 35¢ per kilowatt, triple the U.S. average. Financial costs like these make it nearly impossible to transition entirely to renewables, even in wealthy societies.
(Shortform note: Though critics point to the Energiewende to criticize transitions to renewables, other experts argue that similar policies can avoid its shortcomings in other countries. The Energiewende phased out nuclear energy and switched to renewables when they were too expensive relative to fossil fuels, but experts suggest that other countries don’t have to repeat these mistakes.)
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Like what you just read? Read the rest of the world's best book summary and analysis of Bjørn Lomborg's "False Alarm" at Shortform.
Here's what you'll find in our full False Alarm summary:
- Why climate change isn't as cataclysmic as people think
- The unintended costs that come with climate activists’ proposed approaches
- A look at the most promising approaches to climate change
