When Will We See the Northern Lights Again? Experts Weigh In

When will we see the northern lights again? Will we get a repeat of the spectacular aurora display we had last year?

Solar activity plays a crucial role in creating these magnificent light shows. During periods of heightened solar activity, particularly near solar maximum, the chances of seeing the aurora at lower latitudes increase significantly. Several factors determine when and where these celestial displays might appear.

Keep reading to discover how to boost your chances of witnessing this breathtaking phenomenon and learn what scientists predict about future aurora displays.

Predicting the Northern Lights

On May 10 and 11, 2024, millions of people saw the northern lights (aurora borealis) in locations well south of where it’s typically visible. (Observers in the southern hemisphere also saw the aurora australis much farther north than usual.) The display was caused by a series of three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that sent solar particles into Earth’s atmosphere. So, when will we see the northern lights again? Some scientists consider last year’s geomagnetic storm, which set off the spectacular northern and southern lights, a “once-in-a-generation” event.

Scientists say the storm brought the strongest magnetic activity in decades and the most vibrant aurora display in centuries, according to NASA. So that you’re prepared whenever the next solar “superstorm” occurs, we’ll take a look at when scientists think we might see it again, and how you can maximize your chances of getting a good look at it the next time it comes around.

An aurora display like we observed in May 2024 is very rare, and whether it happens again depends on the sun’s activity. Scientists have linked the CMEs that caused the aurora display to an area of the sun’s surface called Active Region 3664 (AR3664). AR3664 contains dark sunspots that disrupt the sun’s magnetic field and create the conditions that can lead to a solar flare or a CME. When the sun reaches solar maximum, sunspots that give rise to solar flares and CMEs become more and more common as solar maximum approaches. Because the heightened activity will also continue after solar maximum, scientists think we’ll have a period of more than a year with better-than-typical odds of seeing an aurora at lower latitudes. 

It’s useful for scientists to anticipate the sun’s magnetic activity. When CMEs disrupt Earth’s magnetic field, they can interfere with radio transmissions, cause electrical surges that overload power grids, and damage satellites. This results in disruptions to communication, navigation, and electricity systems. Scientists use sophisticated instruments and models to try to forecast “space weather,” including spacecraft that measure solar wind and monitor the sun’s magnetic field, and cameras and magnetometers operated from Earth. Yet they can’t really predict when or where auroras might be visible. They have to wait for a CME erupt to predict its path and project whether it will reach Earth and cause a geomagnetic storm.

Though scientists can’t really predict when another big geomagnetic storm might strike, they can make some educated guesses about how often such events should occur. Records indicate that a storm of the scale of the one that caused the May 2024 auroras has about a 5% chance of happening in any given year. But they think that that probability could be higher over the next couple of years as the sun reaches solar maximum and its activity begins to gradually decline. It’s also possible that we could see an even bigger storm than we observed last May. Some scientists even think we’re overdue for a storm more like 1859’s “Carrington Event,” a solar storm that knocked out telegraph systems and created auroras visible from the tropics. 

How to Increase Your Odds of Seeing the Aurora

If you want to figure out when you might see the aurora outside of its usual range of visibility, you can watch the Kp Index, which measures the geomagnetic activity that gives rise to the aurora. The Kp Index ranges from 0 to 9. At a level 6 or 7, it’s possible to see the aurora from the northern edge of the United States. At a level 8 or 9, it’s visible from many northern states. (Scientists have seen Level 9 activity on only 32 occasions in the last 92 years, and three of those occurred between May 10 and 11, 2024.) The NOAA also measures the strength of the geomagnetic storms caused when energy and particles from the sun disturb Earth’s magnetic field. The NOAA ranks these storms on a scale from Level 1 to Level 5, and the agency put out a warning for a Level 4 storm—which reached a Level 5 when it arrived—ahead of the display last May.

In addition to looking out for the aurora when the Kp Index indicates that geomagnetic activity is high, experts recommend a few other strategies for maximizing your chances of seeing the aurora. You can travel closer to the north magnetic pole, which is located in the islands of northeastern Canada. Or, move to a higher altitude where you have an unobstructed view northward. Under the right conditions, you can see the aurora from 600 miles away. It’s also important to look for the darkest place possible, away from urban light pollution (and avoiding very high latitudes when the sun doesn’t set in summer). It’s also useful to know that the aurora is usually most vivid within an hour or two of midnight, and near the spring and fall equinoxes.

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