What’s the impact of change on businesses? How does public perception change an organization?
Innovation can stem from changes outside your organization’s sphere of control. Given this, Peter F. Drucker writes that entrepreneurs ought to keep a keen eye on market shifts, demographic changes, and the evolution of public perception.
Check out why keeping an eye on changes in the market, people, and perception is important for entrepreneurs.
Changes in Markets, People, and Perceptions
Entrepreneurs should always watch for changes in a market or industry. The impact of change on business is so big that when the basic elements of a market start to shift, larger companies that are set in their ways often struggle to adapt, creating an opening for creative thinkers. This is especially true when industries experience rapid growth, which usually signals an impending structural shift in that industry as a whole. For instance, the auto industry’s rapid expansion in the 20th century gave birth to the “Big Three” US automakers—Ford, GM, and Chrysler. However, with demand still on the rise in the turbulent 1960s and ’70s, the Big Three failed to adapt soon enough, opening the door for foreign automakers to introduce less costly and more fuel-efficient cars.
(Shortform note: A dramatic modern example of Drucker’s principle has been the shift from physical media to digital streaming, which upended the entertainment industry’s prior business model, opening opportunities for independent artists. By shifting power away from traditional outlets such as broadcast networks, streaming platforms opened avenues for a diversity of niche content, which data-driven algorithms let these platforms curate for specific audiences. As innovators, independent filmmakers can adapt more quickly than big corporations to the shifting media landscape, but success isn’t guaranteed. As the economic turmoil caused by these changes subsides, the power may be shifting back from niche creators to large conglomerates.)
Demographic shifts also pave the way for innovation, since they provide a broad indication of who will be spending money and on what. Fluctuations in the population’s average age or education level can give you a glimpse into the future pool of consumers. Drucker writes that contrary to what some business leaders believe, these changes don’t always occur slowly—in the 20th century, demographic changes happened quickly, such as the famous post-World War II “baby boom.” The key lies in interpreting how and when these changes will affect consumer behavior. By keeping an eye out for major demographic shifts, you can design new products and services for markets as they emerge.
(Shortform note: Drucker’s observations beg the question of what demographic shifts taking place now are going to affect businesses in the future. At the time of this writing, two key statistics show that an increase in human longevity coupled with falling fertility rates is leading to an aging global workforce. Older individuals are extending their careers, while still facing issues such as age discrimination in the workplace. At the same time, companies are reporting a talent shortage since they tend to recruit from younger demographic cohorts. Therefore, one might assume Drucker would suggest seeking an innovative way to recruit and engage the aging members of the workforce while making optimal use of their experience and skills.)
Perception Determines Reality
Not only do demographic changes open avenues for innovation, but so do changes in public perception. Drucker cites the example of the health care industry—despite its improvements throughout the 20th century, public opinion shifted toward its shortcomings, fueling a market for health foods and exercise. Public perception often depends not just on the facts but what people believe, both about themselves and the things they buy. Timing is crucial when banking on such changes—moving slowly can be deadly, but moving too soon might hook your business into short-term fads. When navigating this tricky terrain, Drucker says you should aim to be first in the market but make sure your innovation is small and specific, thereby reducing your risk.
(Shortform note: Though Drucker presents public perception, as in the health care example, as a factor that can trigger the need for innovation, manipulating public perception can itself be a powerful innovation tool. In Nudge, Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein suggest that you can alter public perception by presenting people with strategically designed options. For instance, if you create a “loyalty program” for consumers —shifting their perception so they self-identify as loyal customers of your business—you reframe their decision from whether to shop at your store to what they’ll buy. Finding innovative ways to use this technique doesn’t remove people’s freedom of choice—it’s simply a tool of persuasion that’s based on understanding how people think.)
