What’s the future of our global economy? How might population trends affect your financial well-being?
Peter Zeihan’s population analysis, as outlined in his book The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, paints a sobering picture of our demographic and economic future. He argues that a population implosion will lead to economic crises worldwide, with China facing the highest risk.
Read more to discover why Zeihan believes population trends could reshape our global economic landscape.
Peter Zeihan on Population
According to Peter Zeihan, a population implosion could spell disaster for the world. He suggests that declining populations in the developed world will trigger economic crises around the globe. The process began when more people moved from rural areas into cities—space for families became smaller, birth rates slowly dropped, and medical advances extended people’s lives. The combination of longer lives and fewer children led to our present-day aging population, and though people with fewer children to provide for can increase their savings and investments, boosting the capital fueling economic growth, there are fewer young people to reap the benefits. In short, economic growth isn’t sustainable if the population dwindles, and extended lifespans can only offset a reduction in birth rates for a limited time.
(Shortform note: Zeihan writes as if declining populations will reach catastrophic levels within the next 20 years, but research suggests that demographic shifts may not be so sudden and won’t be spread equally throughout the world. A comparison of various population studies reveals that, for instance, Europe’s population may peak in the 2060s, by which time the population of middle and southern Africa will have dramatically increased. The common factor in all population predictions, which aligns with Zeihan’s points about the future, is that populations are uniformly skewing older, while fertility rates are only drifting down.)
As more people retire from the workforce, there are fewer young workers to replace them, and as the larger, older generation passes away, the precipitous population drop that follows will come as an economic blow to the system. Zeihan argues that China in particular is at the highest risk for a demographic implosion due to its decades-long one-child-per-family policy, and when the Chinese workforce disappears, its economy will crack under the strain. Since China and other East Asian countries are vital to globalized manufacturing, the world will feel the brunt as the number of Asian workers decreases and the cost of their labor goes up
| Fighting the Baby Bust One of the assumptions behind Zeihan’s predictions is that countries won’t act to prevent demographic problems until it’s too late, but some nations are already taking steps to mitigate the effects of falling birth rates. These include providing financial incentives for having children, such as paid parental leave, job protection, and childcare support for people who want to have children while pursuing careers at the same time. Another approach is to encourage immigration as a way to maintain a stable workforce, while also encouraging older adults to put off retirement until later in life. China, in an attempt to undo the effects of its strict population control policies, revised its laws in 2021 to let families have up to three children, along with measures aimed at reducing the financial burden of raising them. However, the new policy has still been criticized by human rights groups as a violation of women’s autonomy. Despite the new policy, China’s birth rate is still in decline, since many Chinese women see having a family as an impediment to having a career—a change in priorities that Zeihan describes as a natural consequence of urbanization in a global economy. |
Zeihan says that only a few countries, including the US, have industrialized and urbanized without seeing a drop in population. While the US will feel a demographic shock as the Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) retire, the Millennial generation (born 1981-1996) is large enough to potentially carry the country through the 2040s. However, other countries face population reductions that may prove lethal to their economies. In tandem with the workforce reduction, people who retire draw their money out of investments, which decreases the economy’s credit supply, making it harder to fund new enterprises. Moreover, a shrinking labor force also means a smaller tax base, leaving governments strapped for cash to spend on public services.
(Shortform note: In the US, the effects Zeihan predicts are already appearing in the form of labor shortages driving up wages as employers compete for a smaller pool of workers. Though this may sound good for younger workers, higher pay can also drive inflation, negating the positive effects of a competitive job marketplace. Meanwhile, the recent wave of Baby Boomers to retire are doing so with less money in the bank than previous generations, partly due to how the Great Recession of 2008 impacted their savings and working income. Even if Zeihan is correct that the US’s Millennials can shore up the economy, their own retirement prospects may be grim.)
